The enigma of who was responsible for the deaths of 270 people lingers on, but my guess is we'll never solve it

The reported death of Abdelbaset al-Megrahi from cancer in Tripoli has made a lot of media people pull out their files. Megrahi was a former Libyan intelligence officer, and the only man convicted of responsibility for the Lockerbie disaster in which a bomb placed on a Pan-Am aircraft killed 270 people in 1988. He was released by the Scottish government on compassionate grounds in 2009.

I doubt, however, that many government people have pulled out their files – unless they are mainly concerned with the media. Megrahi's death was expected and probably changes nothing. We know that he was convicted by a Scottish court in 2001, and that his first appeal was rejected in 2002. His second appeal was abandoned, although the Scottish Criminal Cases Review Board had drawn attention to grounds for believing that there might have been a miscarriage of justice, in an 800-page report that has since exceptionally been published.

So why the media interest? First, this was a horrible crime. The families of the victims want justice. The demand for justice from those families that have gone public has taken two different forms. The American families believe Libya and Megrahi to be guilty and were disgusted when he was released on compassionate grounds. The British families want the truth; some are not convinced of Libyan guilt, some firmly believe Megrahi to be innocent. The American families have been backed by American politicians up to the president, and oddly also by British politicians up to the prime minister, who has spoken of the distress caused by Megrahi's release, although no British families seem to have said that they were distressed.

Second, Megrahi's release raised some questions that have not been answered. For example, why did he abandon his appeal immediately before his release was announced? If one accepts at face value the Scottish government's insistence that the release of a dying man was simply a humanitarian decision, there is the embarrassment that he turned out not to be dying so quickly as doctors had predicted. If not, a complex of political factors may have been involved. It's a natural for the conspiracy theorist: Tony Blair in that tent with Gaddafi, intelligence cooperation, oil contracts, lack of cooperation or worse between the Labour government in London and the nationalist government in Edinburgh.

Finally there is the Libyan side of the story. Megrahi's return home in 2009, when he was welcomed by Gaddafi's son Saif al-Islam and a substantial crowd, has been described as a hero's welcome. I thought this was misleading. A real hero's welcome in Libya would have been something Gaddafi himself would not have missed. Not many Libyans know whether Megrahi or Libya were guilty but Megrahi was a Libyan from an important tribe and it is only natural that many people were simply happy that he was allowed to come home and die with his family. Asking the Libyans not to lay on a welcome for him was a prime example of a well-known diplomatic mistake: demanding that water should run uphill.

And what of the country after the revolution? Libyans are ready to believe that Gaddafi was guilty of all kinds of crimes, but that is not the same thing as evidence. Right now they have other things to think about. For the future this means local elections in Benghazi after 42 years of one-man rule, and national elections a month from now. For the past it means the Abu Salim prison massacre in which 1,200 people were slaughtered, all of them Libyans. Lockerbie, dreadful as it was, is not top of their list.

Many Libyans will want to clear up Lockerbie if they can, and they will support us if we make reasonable requests for help in our investigations. No one can be sure, but my guess is that the truth will not be found. Only a few will have been in on any secret, and most of them are dead.

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Residents in Tripoli blame convicted Lockerbie bomber for leaving country isolated and disgraced in aftermath of attack

Libyans expressed relief rather than sadness on Sunday at the news of the death of the convicted Lockerbie bomber Abdelbaset al-Megrahi.

The state news channel Libya Hora (Libya Free) broadcast a brief news item on the death, and the country's ruling National Transitional Council said it remained committed to uncovering the truth behind the Lockerbie bombing.

"We would have liked to uncover more truths but his death will not shut the Lockerbie file," the NTC spokesman Mohamed al-Harizy told Reuters. "The Libyan government will continue to investigate."

Libya's authorities have yet to start any public investigation into the Lockerbie attack, with diplomats predicting that no such case will be opened at least until a new government takes office after elections in June.

In the streets around Megrahi's home in Tripoli's upmarket Hai Damascu neighbourhood, many said his death was a reminder of an era they preferred to forget.

"All Libyans know his face, and we know that he put us back maybe 10 years," said Arfa Mohamed, a 25-year-old bearded cashier at a nearby fast-food shop. "Thanks to him it gave the outside world a view of Libyans as terrorists."

At the house itself, a cordon of male family members stood around the large entrance gate, keeping journalists away. "We are sorry, but we want to be alone," said Abdul Salem, Megrahi's nephew. "He is an innocent man. We want to have peace, we don't want to let journalists near to the house."

For ordinary Libyans, Megrahi's position as a security official with the Gaddafi administration, and the expensive villa he was given, marked him out as part of the hated former regime.

"Was he innocent or guilty? Only God can know," said Mohammed Ferake, in a hardware store close to Megrahi's villa. "I never saw him, his family never shopped here. The [Lockerbie] case did not help Libya."

The international sanctions that plunged the country into isolation after the Lockerbie bombing were keenly felt. "After that, Libya was given a bad name around the world. Because of that, all that Libyans were known for was Gaddafi and his oppression," said Ferake.

Megrahi's death comes amid diplomat deadlock over the NTC's refusal to allow British police officers to visit Libya to investigate Lockerbie.

It also touches on the sensitive subject of the prevalence of former regime officials in Libya's new transitional authorities. The Gaddafi-era security apparatus was destroyed in last year's unrest, but much of the administration remains intact, albeit under new leaders.

Opposition figures in Benghazi, Libya's second city, said local elections held over the weekend would produce a city council that could act as an alternative administration if, as some predict, the national elections due on 19 June were not transparent.

Cameron says bombing case was properly conducted, but MP says there are 'still so many unanswered questions'

David Cameron has dismissed the possibility of a UK inquiry into the conviction of Abdelbaset al-Megrahi – the only person convicted of involvement in the Lockerbie plane bombing – who died in Tripoli on Sunday.

The prime minister said the court case which convicted Megrahi was properly conducted and news of his death should "be a time to remember the 270 people who lost their lives in what was an appalling terrorist act".

Scotland's first minister Alex Salmond, whose government took the decision to release the former Libyan intelligence officer from his life sentence in jail in August 2009 on compassionate grounds, said however it was still open to relatives of Megrahi, who always pleaded his innocence, or campaigners to lodge a fresh appeal against his conviction 11 years ago.

He added: "The Lockerbie case remains a live investigation, and Scotland's criminal justice authorities have made clear that they will rigorously pursue any new lines of inquiry. Scotland's senior law officer the Lord Advocate recently visited Libya, and we have been offered the co-operation of the new Libyan authorities. It has always been the Crown's position that Mr Megrahi did not act alone but with others.

"It is open for relatives of Mr Megrahi to apply to the Scottish Criminal Case Review Commission to seek a further appeal. And the best, indeed the only, place for guilt or innocence to be determined is in a court of law."

While families of those who died in the atrocity in 1988 gave differing reactions to the news – some welcoming Megrahi's death and others supporting his claims of innocence – Libyans largely expressed relief rather than mourning.

Megrahi's death from prostate cancer was confirmed by his brother Abdelnasser, who was at the house in Tripoli where his dead brother lay. He told the Guardian: "I don't want to talk right now, I am very upset, I don't really feel like talking. He's dead, that's it, what more do you have to know?"

At the time of his controversial release in 2009, doctors estimated Megrahi had around three months to live. The decision prompted accusations that it had been linked to UK attempts to forge trade deals with Libya, then still led by Muammar Gaddafi, and sparked outrage in the US – home to most of the victims on board the flight – after Megrahi returned to Tripoli to a hero's welcome.

Cameron, in Chicago for a Nato summit, was in opposition when Megrahi was released. "I've always been clear he should never have been released from prison", he told journalists. Questioned about the possibility of an inquiry, he insisted: "This has been thoroughly gone through. There was a proper process, a proper court proceeding and all the rest of it. We have to give people the chance to mourn those that were lost."

For Labour MP Russell Brown, who represents the Dumfries and Galloway constituency, including Lockerbie at Westminster, there were "still so many unanswered questions" about the bombing. Megrahi's death "means that the possibility of getting all the truth about the disaster may have died with him".

In the US, Carole Johnson, 68, from Greensburg, Pennsylvania, mother of Beth Ann Johnson, a 21-year-old American student on the plane, said: "This is three years too late. While I'm happy that he is dead, long ago I left it in the hands of God. I know exactly where he is, and I know it is quite hot. I'm sure he and Gaddafi are reunited again." Frank Duggan, president of Victims of Pan Am Flight 103, said: "He was an unrepentant murderer and now I hope he will finally see justice."

However Briton Jim Swire, whose daughter Flora was killed in the bombing, said Megrahi's death was a "very sad event". Swire, a member of the Justice for Megrahi group, said: "I met him face-to-face in Tripoli in December last year, when he was very sick and in a lot of pain.

"But he still wanted to talk to me about how information which he and his defence team have accumulated could be passed to me after his death." Swire added: "Right up to the end he was determined – for his family's sake, he knew it was too late for him – how the verdict against him should be overturned".

A joint statement from Justice for Megrahi – signed by 42 public figures and journalists including Archbishop Desmond Tutu, former BBC chief news correspondent Kate Adie, Private Eye editor Ian Hislop, Cardinal Keith O'Brien, Scotland's most senior Catholic, and Professor Noam Chomsky – demanded an independent inquiry into Megrahi's conviction. His prosecution was based on "a fantastical tale" with no direct or forensic evidence to support a tenuous circumstantial case, they said.

Three judges who tried the case without a jury at Camp Zeist in the Netherlands were under "tremendous pressure" to return their guilty verdict of January 2001. "The prosecution case against [Megrahi] held water like a sieve … We have accusations of the key witness having been bribed for testimony; a multitude of serious question marks over material evidence, including the very real possibility of the crucial fragment of printed circuit board [from the bomb] having been fabricated; discredited forensic scientists testifying for the prosecution; crown witness testimony being retracted after the trial and, most worryingly, allegations of the crown's non-disclosure of evidence which could have been key to the defence."

In the streets around Megrahi's luxurious home, a villa set behind high walls in Tripoli's upmarket Hai Damascu neighbourhood, many said his death was a reminder of an era they preferred to forget. "All Libyans know his face, and we know that he put us back maybe 10 years," said Arfa Mohamed, a 25-year-old cashier at a nearby fast-food shop. "Thanks to him it gave the outside world a view of Libyans as terrorists."

For ordinary Libyans his position as a security official with the Gaddafi administration, and the expensive villa he was given, marked him out as part of the former regime.

"Was he innocent or guilty, only God can know," said Mohammed Ferake, in a hardware store close to Megrahi's villa. "I never saw him, his family never shopped here. The [Lockerbie] case did not help Libya ... After that, Libya was given a bad name around the world. Because of that, all that Libyans were known for was Gaddafi and his oppression."

Megrahi's death also touches on the increasingly controversial subject of the prevalence of former regime officials in Libya's transitional authorities. While the Gaddafi-era security apparatus was destroyed in last year's war, much of the administration remains intact, albeit under new masters.

One might assume that the truth about the bombing might finally emerge - but that hope could be premature

The death on Sunday of Abdelbaset al-Megrahi, the only person to be convicted of the Lockerbie bombing, removes one running sore in relations between London and Washington. There was fury in the US when the former Libyan intelligence officer was released on compassionate grounds by the Scottish government three years ago after being diagnosed with terminal cancer. There was outrage when Megrahi returned to Tripoli to a hero's welcome, escorted by Saif al-Islam, and renewed charges that it was all part of another dirty piece of British realpolitik with the Gaddafi regime, involving lucrative oil and gas deals. There is no room in this anger, for the thought that the Scottish legal process could act independently of London or that doctors genuinely thought that Megrahi had only months to live.

In reality, the death of the man who pleaded his innocence right up until the very end changes little. The horrific crime of Pan Am Flight 103 leaves the families of the victims as cruelly divided today as they have always been. Some, like Frank Duggan, president of the Victims of Pan Am Flight 103, believe Megrahi is an unrepentant murderer who is finally seeing justice (presumably in hell). And others, just as bereaved, like Jim Swire, who saw Megrahi in Tripoli last year, believe evidence yet to be released will prove his innocence.

It is undoubtedly the case that question marks linger over the evidence provided to the original trial at Camp Zeist in the Netherlands: differences were found in the metal coatings and the circuit board of the timer fragment used in the bombing and ones supplied to the Libyans; the only person to identify Megrahi, the Maltese shopkeeper Tony Gauci, was offered a reward of $2m by the US, changed his story many times and his evidence could well be unreliable. If the evidence provided at the trial is correct, Megrahi carried out the attack using his own passport, staying in his regular hotel, using regular flights to and from Malta, and a timer the Libyans believed was made exclusively for them. The court's inference that the bomb was transferred from a feeder flight from Frankfurt was also challenged by a security guard at Heathrow who revealed a break-in to Pan Am's baggage area 17 hours before the bombing. Little of this has been tested in court, because Megrahi dropped his appeal just before he was released. Other significant doubts about the conviction have been raised by the Scottish Criminal Cases Review Commission (SCCRC), which spent three years studying the evidence. Officially the case remains open and the lord advocate Frank Mulholland and the FBI chief Robert Mueller travelled recently to Tripoli as an advance party for Scottish investigators from the Crown Office and Dumfries and Galloway police. Between them, and the Libyans who have suffered as much as anyone from Gaddafi's regime, one might assume that the truth about the bombing might finally emerge. But that hope could be premature.

First, with local elections in Benghazi and national elections in a month's time, the Libyan authorities have other things on their minds and Lockerbie is not top of their list of Gaddafi's crimes – the massacre at Abu Salim prison is. Second, there is little political incentive for either Britain or the US to go where the evidence on this leads them. Far better to let the investigation continue to an inconclusive end, in the knowledge that there were few members of the Gaddafi regime in on the secret and fewer still will be alive to tell the tale.

There are many reasons for delaying an independent judicial inquiry, not least the distant prospect of more criminal trials. But if ever a crime of this magnitude warranted an independent review it is this. Even if it is eventually found that Megrahi's conviction was safe, it would provide a forum for making all the evidence public, including the SCCRC's report, and for putting to rest all doubts. Nor is there any comfort to be obtained from the $2.76bn Libya paid to the victims' families. In the end Megrahi outlived his leader by seven months, but both may well have taken the truth of what happened to their grave.

Abdelbaset al-Megrahi, the only person convicted for the 1988 airplane bombing over the Scottish town of Lockerbie, is buried in Tripoli

Abdullah Senussi, who is wanted by France, the ICC and Libya, faces trial accused of entering country illegally, says court source

Muammar Gaddafi's former intelligence chief, who is wanted by France, the international criminal court and Libya, has been charged by Mauritania's public prosecutor in a secret court hearing, his first public appearance since fleeing Libya's crumbling regime to the desert country.

Abdullah Senussi, a confidante and brother-in-law to Gaddafi, will face trial for entering Mauritania illegally with a falsified Malian passport, a crime that carries a maximum three-year jail term, a judicial source said.

Senussi, who had been held in a villa in the Mauritanian capital of Nouakchott since March, is alleged to be behind a massacre in Tripoli's notorious Abu Salim prison, which left around 1,200 inmates dead, and triggered Libya's revolt when lawyers sought to reopen the case last year.

A Mauritanian security official said an entourage of elite presidential guards had whisked Senussi overnight into the multi-domed courthouse. "He looked well, and seemed in good spirits under the circumstances," the official said.

"Normally he would now be held in the main prison, but our understanding is he is staying in a special location guarded by troops," the official said.

A judicial source said a trial was unlikely to begin soon. "A [trial start] date doesn't have to be set for up to three years, so that will buy the authorities time," he said.

France wants to try Senussi in connection with the 1989 bombing of an airliner over Niger in which 170 died. An ICC warrant is seeking Senussi for crimes against humanity in Libya.

British officials have also indicated they could seek access to him in relation to the Lockerbie bombing, in which Senussi is suspected of playing of a role.

Diplomats said there had been no clear indication what Mauritanian authorities planned to do with the high-profile prisoner. "More than anything else, the Senussi issue has been about smoke and mirrors," a diplomat said.

Libyan convicted of 1988 bombing laid to rest in Tripoli suburb during low-key burial attended by fewer than 100 mourners

Abdelbaset al-Megrahi, the only man convicted over the 1988 Lockerbie bombing, was buried at a simple funeral on Tuesday, in vivid contrast to the rapturous welcome he was given on his return from Scotland three years ago.

Back then thousands greeted him at a stage-managed arrival at night at Tripoli airport. Hailed as a returning hero, he was met and embraced on the plane's steps by Muammar Gaddafi's son Saif al-Islam.

By contrast, no officials from the current or any previous administration were in attendance as his body, wrapped in a white shroud, was placed in a grave in the dusty Zarwani cemetery in Jansour, Tripoli's westernmost suburb.

Megrahi's family insisted it was an ordinary funeral, but in fact it was less than ordinary. Normally large crowds gather for burials, as is Libyan tradition, but less than 100 mourners, including his four sons, followed the coffin as it was carried down a sandy path to the empty plot in the baking heat.

Libyans are divided over Megrahi's guilt or otherwise in the destruction of Pan Am Flight 103, which killed 270 people, but the stigma of his involvement with Gaddafi's security services lingers.

As is custom, the funeral was held promptly, the day after he died in the large villa given to him by the Gaddafi regime in a upmarket Tripoli suburb, and his wife, Aisha, and one daughter remained at home.

After his body was washed it was taken to the graveside where an Iman said traditional prayers and mourners chanted Allah Akhbar (God is Great).

The tomb, covered now in brown earth and marked with four grey breeze blocks, marks the end of a journey that began in Sabha, hundreds of miles to the south in the Sahara.

Megrahi's tribe was close to Gaddafi's, one reason why so many members were chosen for key posts in the dictator's security services.

"We are just ordinary people, this was an ordinary funeral," said his cousin, Mohamed Rashed, 52, who worked with Megrahi at Libyan airlines, but said he had no role in the former regime's security apparatus. "I hope that the truth will be revealed. We asked him [shortly before he died] 'do you wish for the truth to come out?' and he said 'Yes I do'."

Dr Rashed, sporting a grey beard and dark glasses and dressed in a blue waistcoat and a traditional brown flowing coat, said his cousin had been ignored by officialdom.

"No officials came today. Only journalists. Too many. We are sad that he is dead, but we are not sad about the new political situation, the new freedom," he said.

He insisted Megrahi had no interest in politics. "As a family, we are just like anybody else. When we would sit down as a family Abdelbaset was not talking about politics, he was talking about anything, watching TV, he supported Libya Tihad [a Tripoli football team]. He was kind with his friends, with his family, he was religious, he memorised parts of the Qur'an."

Like thousands of Libyans, the Megrahis are adjusting to the new, uncertain political climate, where ties with the former regime are automatically suspect.

"He was innocent, I am sure of it," said another cousin, Ashur al-Zuwam. Clad in a black shirt and trousers and wearing sandals encrusted with the sandy dust of the cemetery, he added: "When Abdelbaset first got back he went to his mother and said, 'mother, if I am guilty of this, then you should not forgive me'. This shows he was innocent."

As the only person convicted of the Lockerbie bombing, Megrahi's death may remove the one man who knows the truth about who was responsible. Libya's ruling National Transitional Council has pledged to investigate the case, but refuses British police permission to travel to Libya to assist.

Many ordinary Libyans are happy to forget their tortured past, not least the sanctions and pariah status into which their country was plunged after Megrahi was linked with the 1988 bombing.

After Megrahi was convicted at a special court in the Netherlands in 2001 he served his sentence in prison in Scotland, until he was released on compassionate grounds in 2009 after being diagnosed with terminal cancer.

Zuwam insisted Megrahi had not consented to the hero's welcome foisted on him by Gaddafi on his return from Scotland in August 2009.

"After the revolution they said he was one of Gaddafi's soldiers, but I don't know, maybe the regime used him. In his last months he was happy to be with God. He was pleased also that he could come back to Libya to die."

• Assad regime exchanges detainees for a damaged tank
• Bahrain activist appears in court in a wheelchair
• Jail sentences for police who killed Egyptian protesters

• Read the latest summary

4.57pm: Here's a roundup of the latest developments:

Syria

• UN monitors have helped negotiate the release of two detainees in exchange for a damaged tank, activists and the UN say. It is unclear why the Syrian government agreed to release the two men in exchange for a tank that appeared to be totally destroyed (see 4.19pm).

• Senior officers in the rebel Free Syrian Army have made a rare appearance on video, in a clip showing them providing a detailed description of the regular army's bombardment of the town of Rastan to UN monitors (see 3.55pm).

Yemen

• The annual National Day parade has gone ahead peacefully in Sana'a today, despite the bomb attack during yesterday's rehearsal. Its venue was hurriedly switched to the grounds of the air force academy and President Hadi watched from behind a bulletproof glass screen (see 10.12 am).

Libya

• A female candidate has topped the poll in Benghazi's local elections (see 11.01am).

• Tunisia will extradite former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi's prime minister to Libya and the handover could take place in "days or weeks", Tunisia's justice minister Noureddine Bouheiri said (see 3.36pm).

Egypt

• A court has sentenced five policemen to 10 years in prison in absentia for killing anti-Mubarak protesters last year (see 4.09pm).

• Abul Fotouh's presidential campaign has complained about irregularities in electoral procedures for Egyptians in the Saudi city of Jeddah (see 12.49pm).

Bahrain

• Jailed activist Abdul Hadi al-Khawaja has appeared in court in a wheelchair for his retrial in a civilian court. The case has now been adjourned until 29 May, according to his wife (see 11.13am).

Lebanon

• In a move that could reduce the tension in Lebanon, a military prosecutor today ordered the release of Shadi Mawlawi, an outspoken Lebanese critic of Syrian president Bashar Assad (see 1.06pm).

4.19pm: Syria: UN monitors were involved in a deal to swap two detainees for a damaged tank in Khan Sheikhoun, Kofi Annan's spokesman has confirmed.

Ahmad Fawzi did not elaborate on the details. Footage from activists showed senior UN monitor Ahmet Himmiche, negotiating for the release of the two men (see 12.30pm).

4.09pm: Egypt: A court sentenced five policemen to 10 years in prison in absentia today for killing protesters, the Associated Press reports. It was a rare conviction of security officials accused of using deadly force against the demonstrations that overthrew Hosni Mubarak last year.

Typically defendants who do not appear in court are automatically convicted, but will also receive a new trial once apprehended. However, families of slain protesters attending the court session counted the convictions as a victory. They broke down in tears and chanted "God is great!" in a show of relief.

Our colleague Jack Shenker says these are the most serious sentences given so far to any security force members charged with unlawful killing of demonstrators (apart from one death penalty, which was later overturned). Most of the others have been acquitted or given suspended sentences. This verdict could be overturned in a higher court but it's still a significant development – and of course the timing is interesting, coming on the eve of the presidential election.

4.02pm: Egypt: Our colleague Jack Shenker has just sent us a spreadsheet which is doing the rounds in Egypt. You fill in the questionnaire, and then it tells you who you should be voting for in the presidential election.

3.55pm: Syria: Senior officers in the rebel Free Syrian Army have made a rare appearance on video, in a clip showing them providing a detailed description of the regular army's bombardment of the town of Rastan to UN monitors.

One of the thick-set officers in the clip says "rockets are coming from the southern and northern side". Asked by the monitor to say who was firing the rockets he replied "The brigade of bridge engineers."

He said they were part of field brigade number one which includes battalion 15 and battalion 18, according to our colleague Mona Mahmood. It is equipped with mortars and tanks the officer told the monitors.

The monitors were also filmed observing an army checkpoint in Rastan.

And in another video the monitors were approached by two sisters who said their brother, Salah Ahmed al-Ahmed, had disappeared seven months ago.

A rebel commander told the note-taking monitor that all political prisoners were taken to the fourth division's military prison in Damascus so that they were out of view of the UN.

Asked by the monitor to specify which branch of the prison, the uniformed man said: "293".

"We will register the detainees," the monitor told him.

3.36pm: Tunisia: The authorities will extradite former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi's prime minister to Libya and the handover could take place in "days or weeks", Tunisia's justice minister Noureddine Bouheiri said today. Reuters reports:

A Tunisian court dropped charges of illegally entering the country against al-Baghdadi Ali al-Mahmoudi in February but he has remained in jail since last year, pending a decision on his extradition to Libya.

"The government has decided to hand over Mahmoudi and all that remains is the completion of some organisational issues," Bouheiri told Reuters in an interview.

A Tunisian court had ruled in November that Mahmoudi should be extradited, but Tunisian President Moncef al-Marzouki later said the handover would not take place until the situation in Libya had stabilised and he could be guaranteed a fair trial after Gaddafi himself was killed by rebels.

That left Mahmoudi in an unusual position, in which he was acquitted of charges in Tunisia but remained in custody pending agreement with the Libyan government over his fate.

Asked when the handover might happen, Bouheiri said: "This could be within days or weeks or perhaps longer ... Our Libyan brothers have pledged to respect Mahmoudi physically and emotionally and to give him a fair trial."

3.04pm: Yemen: Today's National Day commemorates the unification of north and south Yemen in 1990 – though many in the south do not regard it as a cause for celebration. Separatist activism in the south revived during the last few years of President Saleh's rule.

In an article for Comment is free, Abubakr al-Shamahi cautions against separatism, saying that the crimes committed against the people of the south were committed by the Saleh regime, and not by "the north". He continues:

It is also undeniable that Yemenis share a common bond as one people. Initially, unification was incredibly popular, and to this day most secessionists will only say that it was betrayed. Those who reject a Yemeni identity, and claim a "South Arabian" one, seem to ignore that the term, in its political sense, only came about with the British occupation of the region.

Yemenis from every part of the country have intermarried, and live in all parts of the country. Any secession would split families and friends, and ruin the already depleted economy. Once the current anger at the apparent northern hegemony subsides, only regret would remain, akin to the lament the two Koreas express.

2.55pm: Syria: Syrian police killed two people when they opened fire on a crowd who came out to welcome UN observers in the eastern province of Deir Ezzor, a rebel official told Reuters.

"As soon as the UN convoy entered al-Busaira, a jubilant crowd of hundreds came out to welcome them. It was not minutes before they came under fire," Abu Laila, a Free Syrian Army official, said by phone from the town.

"The observers immediately left al-Busaira. We called them to come back but they refused," he said, adding that fighting ensued between President Bashar al-Assad's forces and rebels based in the town.

There was no independent confirmation of the incident.

Another opposition source in the province said that government forces surrounding al-Busaira had begun firing anti-aircraft guns at the town.

The activist group the Local Co-ordination Committees in Syria named one of those killed as Mashaal Moustapha Idriss.

2.37pm: Lebanon: Foreign Policy magazine has a dramatic firsthand account of the weekend's violence between pro and anti-Syrian groups in Beirut.

Beirut-based journalist Mitch Prothero writes:

I was on the corner of Beirut's Tareeq Jdeideh neighborhood when things turned bonkers. Attackers opened fire with multiple automatic weapons on a group of arguing men and soldiers. The soldiers ducked for cover along with the civilians: A young soldier and I fell behind a Volkswagen sedan for cover as scores of kids sprinted down the street away from the gunfire. Several were hit in the back as they fled.

Prothero has this summary of the causes of the violence:

Sunday night seemed more about revenge toward the army for the earlier shootings [of two Sunni clerics] months of pent-up frustration from being saddled with a government perceived to be doing Syria's bidding, and an effort to cleanse Sunni neighbourhoods of proxy parties aligned with the Syrians and Hezbollah.

And, this gloomy assessment of the future:

It's only going to get worse: The government's response to the violence will almost certainly be the tightening of pro-Assad forces' control over the Army, police and intelligence services. There's already been a quiet movement within the ministries to stack the bureaucracy with those sympathetic to Hezbollah and its allies, and the arrests of Sunday night's partisans had already begun by Monday morning. But as Lebanon drifts further into Syria's orbit, a large community of very angry people began rebelling Sunday night. And the path ahead is neither clear nor safe.

Syria: The explosion that reportedly killed five people in the Qaboun district of Damascus last night (see 10.44am) remains rather puzzling. The Associated Press says:

It was not clear what the exact target of the blast was, although authorities in Damascus said it appeared to be a police station. But photos of the scene released by the state news agency, Sana, showed what looked like a restaurant.

The area was considered too dangerous for journalists to access.

2.08pm: Syria/Turkey: The Turkish police have foiled a suspected plot to abduct the head of the Free Syrian Army Colonel Riad al-Asaad, according to Turkish press reports.

Two Turks were collaborating with a Syrian spy to kidnap Asaad, according to Bloomberg citing the Istanbul daily Milliyet.

The three people accused of planning the kidnapping were detained and freed pending trial, it said.

The Turkish daily Zaman, reported the plot, but did not name Asaad as the target.

It said:

Hatay chief public prosecutor Adem Yazar said in a statement on Monday that an investigation was launched after a tip-off that a Syrian colonel currently residing in a tent city in the village of Apaydin, located in Hatay province, was going to be abducted and handed over to Syrian authorities.

It pointed out that last September two defectors were abducted and handed back to the Syrian government. They included Colonel Hussein Harmush whose forced confession was later broadcast on Syrian TV.

Harmush was reported to have been executed in January.

1.57pm: Egypt: The authorities have finally allowed presidential election observers to start work – though it's too late for them to draw a full picture, Reuters reports, citing monitoring groups.

Many international monitors arrived in April but waited weeks for the necessary paperwork, forcing them to miss most of an election campaign enlivened by mass rallies, vigorous canvassing and Egypt's first televised presidential debates.

"We could not really assess the pre-electoral period as we did not have the accreditation," said Justin Doua, field director for the Electoral Institute for Sustainable Democracy in Africa (EISA), one of three foreign groups checking the vote.

Another, the Carter Center, said last week the delay in getting badges meant its monitors could not observe candidate and voter nominations or campaigning, which ended on Sunday.

The Center, founded by former US President Jimmy Carter with a remit to promote peace, democracy and public health, said on Tuesday it had now received its monitoring badges.

But a network of Arab monitors named Maat - after an ancient Egyptian goddess who personified truth, morality and justice - said some of its staff had still not received theirs.

EISA has sent its 33 witnesses out to 15 provinces and they reported some minor disorder during electoral meetings but no major clashes between rival campaigns, Doua said.

The Carter Center has also complained of state election committee rules limiting the time monitors can spend in polling stations and barring them from commenting on the process until results are announced.

Fewer international groups will be monitoring the vote than during a parliamentary election, whose final stage in January was overshadowed by a judicial crackdown on several civil society groups accused of receiving illegal foreign funds.

The election committee has accredited 9,700 monitors from 54 foreign and local groups for the presidential election, said Hazem Mounir of the election unit at Egypt's National Council for Human Rights, far fewer than in the parliamentary vote.

• Guardian journalist Ian Black, who is in Egypt for the election, is answering readers' questions here.

1.29pm: Here's a roundup of the latest developments:

Syria

• The UN's peacekeeping chief Herve Ladsous claimed a "third party" is involved in the violence in Syria after a visit to the opposition stronghold of Homs, the Sydney Morning Herald reports.

• UN monitors have helped negotiate the release of two detainees in exchange for a damaged tank, according video from activists. It is unclear why the Syrian government agreed to release the two men in exchange for a tank that appeared to be totally destroyed (see 12.30pm).

Yemen

• The annual National Day parade has gone ahead peacefully in Sana'a today, despite the bomb attack during yesterday's rehearsal. Its venue was hurriedly switched to the grounds of the air force academy and President Hadi watched from behind a bulletproof glass screen (see 10.12 am).

Libya

• Muammar Gaddafi's former intelligence chief, Abdullah Senussi, who is wanted by France, the international criminal court and Libya, has been charged by Mauritania's public prosecutor in a secret court hearing for entering the country illegally. His trial is expected to start soon, writes Monica Mark in Nouakchott.

• A female candidate has topped the poll in Benghazi's local elections (see 11.01am).

Egypt

• Thousands of supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood gathered for a show of strength before polls open tomorrow for the presidential election, but the movement has suffered a decline in popularity and its candidate Mohamed Morsi is uninspiring, writes Ian Black in Cairo.

• Ian Black will be answering questions about the elections live from 2pm BST today. Please post a question here.

• Abul Fotouh's presidential campaign has complained about irregularities in electoral procedures for Egyptians in the Saudi city of Jeddah (see 12.49pm).

Bahrain

• Jailed activist Abdul Hadi al-Khawaja has appeared in court in a wheelchair for his retrial in a civilian court. The case has now been adjourned until 29 May, according to his wife (see 11.13am).

• A heavy security presence at Bahrain's largest public hospital, Salmaniya, has forced injured protesters to seek treatment in a network of secret clinics in people's homes, the New York Times reports.

Lebanon

• In a move that could reduce the tension in Lebanon, a military prosecutor today ordered the release of Shadi Mawlawi, an outspoken Lebanese critic of Syrian president Bashar Assad (see 1.06pm).

Kuwait

• A Kuwaiti man has pleaded not guilty to charges that he insulted the prophet Muhammad and the rulers of Saudi Arabia and Bahrain in messages on Twitter, the BBC reports. Hamad al-Naqi, a Shia Muslim, said his Twitter account had been hacked and that he had not written the messages.

1.06pm: Lebanon: In a move that could reduce the tension in Lebanon, a military prosecutor today ordered the release of Shadi Mawlawi, an outspoken Lebanese critic of Syrian president Bashar Assad, the Associated Press reports.

Mawlawi's arrest earlier this month sparked clashes between pro- and anti-Syrian groups in the northern city of Tripoli that killed eight people. Judicial officials said Mawlawi was released on about $333 bail and will not be allowed to leave the country.

Following his release, Mawlawi – who was accused of belonging to a terrorist organisation – said he had confessed "under psychological pressure", in remarks quoted by the Daily Star.

Mawlawi, who wore a black headband bearing the Muslim profession of faith, insisted that his confession was null and void due to the manner in which it was extracted.

"I confessed to many things but only under pressure and any person would have confessed to those things when placed under such psychological pressure ... I later disavowed my confession."

Soon after Military Investigating Judge Nabil Wehbi approved his release, Mawlawi was whisked away from the Beirut Military Court in a dark Peugeot belonging to Safadi.

12.49pm: Egypt: Abul Fotouh's presidential campaign has complained about irregularities in electoral procedures for Egyptians in the Saudi city of Jeddah. Al-Masri al-Youm reports:

In a statement, the campaign claimed it detected certain irregularities, saying that the consulate closed its doors after voting and asked the supervisors to leave and start the vote count the next day.

It also claimed that certain political forces collected ID cards from voters and voted on their behalf, and duplicate ballots were sent by mail.

Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohammed Morsi is reportedly in the lead among Saudi-based Egyptians, with almost 50% of the vote.

12.30pm: Syria: UN monitors have helped negotiate the release of two detainees in exchange for a damaged tank, according to video from activists.

It is unclear why the Syrian government agreed to release the two men, named by activists as Salaheddine al-Saleh and Walid Ma'amoun, in exchange for a tank that appeared to be totally destroyed.

But in the crudely edited film, senior UN monitor Ahmet Himmiche, from Morocco, appears to negotiate for the release of the two men.

"We will hand over the two detainees from our vehicle and the tank will be pulled out," Himmiche says according to our colleague Mona Mahmood.

The exchange took place on Monday in Khan Sheikhoun, scene of an attack last Tuesday during an inspection visit by UN monitors. Six monitors spent the night in the town under the protect of the Free Syrian Army, following the incident.

Himmiche made reference to the incident in the latest video. He said: "We will assess how to move them [the detainees] from here, and Khan Sheikhoun will go down in history. We will say that Khan Sheikhoun is able to protect the monitors and their cars."

Later in the clip Khan Sheikhoun activist Abu Hammam appears in a striped shirt (we spoke to him last week).

In the clip he says: "An agreement has been reached to exchange detainees for a tank which has been destroyed. The UN has intervened to sought out this problem, with the people of Khan Sheikhoun who have protected the UN."

The detainees are later shown emerging from a UN vehicle. A damaged tank is also shown being taken away by what appear to be government soldiers.

The footage cannot be independently verified. The UN has yet to respond to queries about the apparent exchange.

11.49am: Syria: An activist leader in Homs has accused the Assad regime of involvement in terrorism, writes Imogen Blake.

Khaled Abu Salah, was filmed greeting chief UN peacekeeper Herve Lasdous and Robert Mood, head of the UN monitors, during their visit to the city on Monday.

In what purports to be footage of a subsequent meeting with the UN officials, Salah denied Syrian government claims of al-Qaida involvement in the Syrian uprising.

Speaking through an interpreter he said: "We are working within the context of humanity, security and freedom. It is the other side that is [responsible] for relationships with terrorist groups and for various incidents which have occurred, including the assassination of Hariri [a reference to the killing of Lebanon's prime minister in 2005]."

Khaled also paid tribute to Sunday Times war correspondent Marie Colvin and French photographer Rémi Ochlik who were killed in a makeshift press centre in the Baba Amr area of Homs in February.

He said: "I worked with the journalists during their presence in Syria, especially Marie Colvin and Remi Ochlik. After the unfortunate deaths of these journalists, I want to make known that... the relationship between the activists and the international journalists was strong."

11.30am: Syria: Rebels have been filmed celebrating after capturing and setting alight a government tank in the north-west province of Idlib.

The unverified footage was uploaded to the Syria-registered YouTube account idlib4all, which features videos in and around Idlib,

11.13am: Bahrain: Activist Abdul Hadi al-Khawaja has appeared in court in a wheelchair, Gulf News reports via AFP.

Khawaja staged a hunger strike after being sentenced to life imprisonment by a military court on charges of plotting to overthrow the government. He is now being retried in a civilian court.

Khawaja's wife, Khadija, tweets that the hearing was adjourned until 29 May:

#Bahrain The court is adjourned to 29th May. Hadi was accompanied by a doctor and two nurses.

— Khadija Almousawi (@tublani2010) May 22, 2012

11.01am: Libya: Interesting development in Benghazi following the local elections on Saturday. Brown Moses (in the discussion thread below) highlights the success of a female candidate, Najat Rashid Mansur al-Kikhia, who defeated male contenders in the al-Birka district.

She secured 7,784 votes – more than any other candidate in the city. Asma Magariaf has been tweeting about her background, and here is a photo:

Dr, Najat Al Kikhia,winner of the fourth district, got 80% of total votes in her district. Congrats! #BenghaziElect2012 twitter.com/StayStrongLiby…

— Nahla Elsubeihi ☪ (@StayStrongLibya) May 21, 2012

10.44am: Syria: The government news agency, Sana, has published photographs from the scene of last night's explosion in al-Qaboun district of Damascus.

It says: "An explosive device, planted by an armed terrorist group, went off causing the martyrdom of the civilians who were at the site of explosion." There are no details about the building where the explosion occurred.

10.12am: Yemen: The annual National Day ceremony has gone ahead peacefully this morning in Sana'a, despite the bomb attack during yesterday's rehearsal.

Fazil Corman, the Turkish ambassador in Yemen, has been tweeting from the ceremony. He says the venue was changed at the last minute but he thinks it was the "right decision" to go ahead with it.

President Hadi arrives at the Yemen National Day ceremony. Solemn atmosphere but good participation in solidarity. twitter.com/FazliCorman/st…

— Fazli Corman (@FazliCorman) May 22, 2012

Reuters adds that President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, who replaced President Saleh earlier this year, watched the parade from behind a bulletproof glass screen at the hastily rearranged and heavily protected new location – the air force academy in Sana'a.

9.56am: Yemen: "Covert" strikes by American drones in Yemen are not as covert as they used to be – thanks to Twitter. The Bureau of Investigative Journalism (BIJ) has documented what is thought to be the first-ever drone strike monitored in real time on Twitter.

It started when Haykal Bafana (@BaFana3) reported drone sightings:

#Yemen | Hearing multiple claims of drone sightings in Hadhramaut, especially in Shibam/Qatn directorates (KSA route). No attacks so far.

— Haykal Bafana (@BaFana3) May 15, 2012

The BIJ article continues:

When the deadly attack finally came in the early hours of Thursday morning, the target itself was hardly a secret.

Earlier, Arabic-language online media in the provincial capital of al-Mukalla had reported that a convoy of alleged al-Qaida rebels was heading north. That news was also swiftly tweeted.

Others were clearly also charting the convoy's progress. As the vehicles approached Shibam at around 1am local time, at least one car, a Toyota Hilax, was destroyed by missiles from above.

A few minutes later, after receiving a phone call from relatives who witnessed the explosion, Sana'a-based lawyer Bafana was tweeting the news:

#Yemen NOW | Missile strike on car in Wadi Hadhramaut. Near city of Shibam. Suspected US drone attack.

— Haykal Bafana (@BaFana3) May 16, 2012

9.37am: Egypt: Veteran Egyptian blogger Sandmonkey (well, six years is a long time in blogging) questions whether the two "frontrunners" in the presidential election will make it to the run-off. The trouble with Amr Moussa and Abdel Moneim Abul Fotouh, he says, is that they are both grey men appealing to the centre ground – but "Egyptians do not vote for centrist parties".

A centre is formed when two opposing forces of equal power and clearly different ideologies are fighting for control, thus creating the political balance that allows a centre to emerge. This doesn't exist in Egypt, which is why Abul Fotouh is turning more and more Islamist to appease his new Salafi supporters, and Moussa is finding himself up in shit-creek without a paddle.

One achievement of the Egyptian presidential election, he says, is that it has killed all ideologies:

We have leftists supporting an Islamist candidate, liberals supporting a Nasserite leftists, A revolutionary workers-rights crusader candidate who didn't get the support of the workers and ended up only getting nominated by MP signatures from parties that he considered anti-revolutionary ...

It's a fine mess that will surely leave analysts and pundits scratching their head for years to come to make any sense of its one million and one questions, where ironically all the answers so far are as clear as grey.

Another Egyptian blogger, Zeinobia, discusses the wildly varying opinion polls. One, for example, places Moussa on 31.7%, another on 14.6%. She wonders how accurately their sampling reflects Egypt's social and geographical make-up.

An article from the Brookings Institution also points out that the polls are
not a reliable guide to who will win:

It is important to keep in mind that it is not possible at this point to develop a good predictive model of electoral behaviour in Egypt, as the experiment is new, coalitions are still forming, and little information is available about likely voters. Therefore, polls ... can give a hint of the trends in public opinion about the presidential candidates but cannot provide accurate predictions ...

We know that political machinery is essential in getting out the vote and that the political environment in Egypt is changing almost by the day.

9.20am: Syria: The UN supervision mission in Syria is looking for new recruits.

There is no mention of the potential dangers involved.

9.01am: Syria: There's been another bomb near the capital Damascus, Reuters reports:

Five people were killed when an explosive device detonated at a restaurant in the Syrian capital Damascus on Tuesday, Syrian state media and activists said.

The northern Damascus neighborhood of Qaboun where the bomb went off has been a centre of protests demanding the end of President Bashar al-Assad's rule and has also seen fighting between Assad loyalists and rebels.

State television blamed the explosion on "terrorists," a term the Syrian government uses when referring to the armed opposition. It said the bomb exploded in a restaurant and showed footage of a burnt-out kitchen and a room full of debris.

The state news agency Sana blamed an "armed terrorist group" without elaborating.

8.27am: (all times BST) Welcome to Middle East Live.

Here's a roundup of the latest developments:"

Syria

• The UN's peacekeeping chief Herve Ladsous claimed a "third party" is involved in the violence in Syria after a visit to the opposition stronghold of Homs, the Sydney Morning Herald reports.

He was referring to extremist groups, but didn't name any specific one. Ladsous affirmed that the focus in the Syrian crisis now "should be on building dialogue and confidence between the parties".

• Lasdous and Robert Mood, head of the UN monitors, were filmed meeting activists in Homs.

Later one of the activists, Khaled Abu Salah, was filmed briefing the UN officials.

• The Guardian's Martin Chulov has spent five days with the rebel fighters from the Free Syrian Army in Jebel al-Zawiya in north-west Syria, one of four key opposition strongholds. Here are the main points of what he found:

- Rebels admitted that the government had succeed in exacerbating the the sectarian nature of the crisis. Mohammed Faisal, a defector from Aleppo, said: "There is no escaping that this has become sectarian in nature, but it's not what we want, it's what the regime wants. I have Alawite friends. I can't talk to them since I have left, even though I think I can still trust them. I just have to be careful now. A valley is between us and there is nothing we can do."

- The rebels were poorly armed. Due to scarcity rifles are worth $4,000, bullets $4 each, and RPG heads $1,000 each.

- Rebels bristle at regime claims that they are linked with al-Qaida but are frustrated that the regime's narrative is starting to prevail.

- The fighters don't expect help from the international community. One said: "Nothing will happen before the American elections, will it? And the French are too busy at home. Turkey and Saudi Arabia will do nothing without America, so it will come down to us."

Yemen

• Local press reported that al-Qaida carried out Monday's suicide bombing that killed more than 90 soldiers at a military parade rehearsal in the Yemeni capital. But none of the group's senior members has yet verified the claim, writes Tom Finn in Sana'a.

Yemen's newly installed president, Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, who was due to attend the celebrations, responded to the bomb attack by firing two senior commanders, both allies of his predecessor, Saleh. One of them, a nephew of Saleh's, was the head of national security, an elite intelligence gathering unit that works closely with the CIA.

Libya

• Muammar Gaddafi's former intelligence chief, Abdullah Senussi, who is wanted by France, the international criminal court and Libya, has been charged by Mauritania's public prosecutor in a secret court hearing for entering the country illegally. His trial is expected to start soon, writes Monica Mark in Nouakchott.

Egypt

• Thousands of supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood gathered for a show of strength before polls open tomorrow for the presidential election, but the movement has suffered a decline in popularity and its candidate Mohamed Morsi is uninspiring, writes Ian Black in Cairo.

Egyptian journalists shook their heads in despair as Morsi finally spoke – only to utter a catalogue of unquotable platitudes. The hope is that ideology and discipline will win out over personality ...

"In football can't a substitute come on with 10 minutes to go and score the winning goal?" asked Sheikh Mohammed Abdel-Maqsud.

• Ian Black will be answering questions about the elections live from 2pm BST on Tuesday 22 May. Please post a question here.

Bahrain

• A heavy security presence at Bahrain's largest public hospital, Salmaniya, has forced injured protesters to seek treatment in a network of secret clinics in people's homes, the New York Times reports. Its reporter described how three protesters with birdshot wounds sought help.

The men travelled to one of dozens of houses that are scattered throughout this island nation, where a secret and growing network of caregivers — doctors, first-aid medics or people with no medical experience at all — wait daily for the casualties from the protests. The houses are not really field hospitals, but rather sitting rooms, often equipped with nothing more than bandages and gauze.

Kuwait

• A Kuwaiti man has pleaded not guilty to charges that he insulted the prophet Muhammad and the rulers of Saudi Arabia and Bahrain in messages on Twitter, the BBC reports. Hamad al-Naqi, a Shia Muslim, said his Twitter account had been hacked and that he had not written the messages.

As Egypt votes for a new president, how are Syria, Libya, Bahrain, Yemen and Jordan doing?

The transition to democracy is proving far from easy for countries affected by the Arab spring uprisings. As Egyptians savour an historic day, here is an updated region-wide democracy scorecard.

Syria

The facts: despite 14 months of violent pro-reform agitation and an estimated 10,000 deaths, the president, Bashar al-Assad, remains firmly entrenched in Damascus. His regime has been ostracised by fellow Arab states, faced sanctions from the west, and been chastised by the UN. But the army, crucially, has remained loyal, while Russia has offered diplomatic protection and Iran provides arms and advice.

The outlook: unless the US and the Nato allies, notably neighbouring Turkey, overcome their aversion to direct military intervention, the regime looks likely to cling on. Syrians face the prospect of prolonged instability as their country becomes the setting for a proxy war between Tehran and pro-western Gulf states.

Democracy scorecard (scale of 1 to 10): 1

Libya

The facts: the overthrow and death of Muammar Gaddafi has been followed not by a new democratic dawn but by continuing political instability exacerbated by the weak performance of a rudderless National Transitional Council, feuding between heavily armed rival militias, continuing human rights abuses, allegations of fraud, and a growing east-west divide.

The outlook: national assembly elections pencilled in for 19 June, for which 4,000 candidates have registered, may be postponed, the electoral commission said this week. There has been creditable progress in restoring oil exports and public services. These gains may be undercut by reviving ethnic and racial tensions previously suppressed by Gaddafi's Arabisation policy.

Democracy scorecard: 5

Bahrain

The facts: among all the Gulf states, Bahrainis have pushed hardest for democratic reform – and been the most repressed. Fearing for its survival, the Sunni monarchy led by King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa invited Saudi Arabia to send troops to help suppress its mostly Shia Muslim opponents in March last year. The intervention, tacitly backed by the US, presaged severe, ongoing human rights abuses.

The outlook: last month's Formula One race in Manama fooled nobody: Bahrain's rulers and ruled remain on a collision course. The promised national dialogue has been stillborn amid almost daily demonstrations. Hundreds of cases of alleged torture, compiled by international investigators last year, remain unaddressed. Clandestine Iranian meddling is likely to continue.

Democracy scorecard: 4

Yemen

The facts: months of street protests finally told on the president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, forcing him from office after 33 years. But the February "election" of a successor was a sham, with Saleh's vice-president the only candidate. Saleh's son and other relatives still control much of the military and government. They are bitterly opposed by rival tribal chiefs and radical Islamists.

The outlook: teetering on civil war, Yemen is proving a magnet for jihadis displaced by American military pressure in eastern Afghanistan and Pakistan's federally administered tribal areas. With al-Qaida expanding its presence in the south, and US drone strikes increasing, the country is the new frontline in Washington's silent "war on terror".

Democracy scorecard: 2

Tunisia

The facts: the Arab spring began triumphantly in Tunisia, when a popular uprising sparked by the death of a street vendor successfully unseated the country's long-time ruler, Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, in January last year. Tunisia's has also been the most successful democratic transition to date. Elections last October saw the moderate Islamists of An-Nahda emerge as the largest party and form a coalition government.

The outlook: so far An-Nahda's leaders have avoided the pitfalls many foresaw for them, respecting Tunisia's relatively secular social norms and, for example, not attempting to anchor a new constitution in sharia law. But fears persist that An-Nahda could yet prove a stalking horse for Islamist extremists.

Democracy scorecard: 7

Jordan

The facts: street protests have been generally small-scale, but pressure is building on King Abdullah to make good his promises of reform. A slumping economy, frequent political reshuffles, a string of high-level corruption scandals, and an influx of refugees from Syria have compounded a sense of growing instability.

The outlook: so far, attention is focused on reform rather than the replacement of the Hashemite monarchy. But this could change if hard times persist and Abdullah fails to deliver the modernising changes his core East Banker constituency is increasingly demanding.

Democracy scorecard: 5

David Cameron announces detectives will fly to Libya in pursuit of information about the policewoman's 1984 killing

British detectives will travel to Libya to renew their investigation into the shooting of the police officer Yvonne Fletcher, David Cameron has announced.

Fletcher was shot from the Libyan embassy as she oversaw an anti-Muammar Gaddafi protest in St James's Square, London, in 1984. The embassy was besieged by British police but the culprits were not surrendered.

Cameron announced the renewal of the investigation after meeting Abdurrahim el-Keib, Libya's interim prime minister, in London. Cameron said the visit by detectives to Tripoli would be a "really positive step forward".

Investigations into, and speculation about, the killing of Fletcher have continued since 1984. In 1999, Libya accepted responsibility and paid compensation to her family which preceded the resumption of diplomatic relations between Tripoli and London.

Detectives visited Libya and interviewed suspects on several occasions after 1999. It is understood that they have focused on two men who became senior figures in Gaddafi's regime but it is not clear if they survived the war that led to his overthrow.

Commander Richard Walton, head of the Metropolitan police's counter-terrorism command, said the news was significant. "We have never lost our resolve to solve this murder and achieve justice for Yvonne's family," he said.

Keib was appointed interim prime minister before elections later this year, but Libya remains divided with a weak central government.

The international criminal court ruled last month that Libya could not try Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, the son of the former leader, fairly and ordered that he be sent to The Hague.

Gaddafi is in the custody of a regional militia which has refused to release him to the Keib government.

Keib spent much of his life working abroad as an academic and businessman in the United States and UAE, and played no part in Gaddafi's administration.

He told Cameron: "The Fletcher case is a case that is close to my heart personally. I had friends who were demonstrating that day next to the embassy. It is a sad story. It is very unfortunate that it has anything to do with the Libyan people."

The Libyan prime minister's visit to Downing Street comes days after the death of Abdelbaset al-Megrahi, the only person convicted over the Lockerbie bombing in 1988. Police in the US and Britain remain keen to continue their investigation into the attack on Pan Am Flight 103, which exploded above the Scottish town.

Downing Street later revealed that Keib met Lord Advocate Frank Mulholland, the Scottish government's senior legal officer, during his visit to discuss the investigation into the bombing of the Pan Am flight. Cameron also raised the issue of Gadaffi's support for the IRA during his talks with the Libyan prime minister.

PM announces detectives will travel to Libya to renew their investigation into the shooting of the police officer during an anti-Gaddafi protest in London in 1984

Wreath laid at memorial to PC killed outside London embassy in 1984, as Met police set to fly to Libya to continue investigation

The Libyan prime minister, Abdurrahim el-Keib, has visited the spot where a police officer, Yvonne Fletcher, was shot outside his country's London embassy in 1984.

Keib made the visit after it was announced that a team of detectives from the Metropolitan police was to fly to Libya to continue the force's investigations into the unsolved murder.

The Libyan premier paused and bowed in front of the memorial to Fletcher and laid a wreath of white roses and carnations at the spot.

No one has ever been brought to justice for the killing. But Keib said on Thursday his country would "work very closely together" with the UK after talks with his British counterpart, David Cameron.

Fletcher, who was 25, was shot as she policed an anti-Gaddafi demonstration outside the Libyan People's Bureau. She died soon afterwards in hospital.

The bullets which killed her and injured 10 protesters came from inside the embassy.

Her death led to an 11-day siege of the building in St James's Square and the severing of diplomatic links between the UK and Libya.

In his film The Oath of Tobruk, the French writer charts his role in persuading Sarkozy to back the Libyan revolt

As a French public intellectual Bernard-Henri Lévy is a creature perfectly unimaginable in Anglo-Saxon culture. In true Gallic style the philosopher is as famous for his luxuriant steel-grey mane, handmade black suits and crisp white shirts (invariably unbuttoned to reveal startling acreages of tanned flesh) as his prolific literary output and ferocious critiques of socialism.

In all, he is a figure many Britons find quite hard to take seriously; to tell the truth, there are even those in France who find him, despite his undoubted intellect, arrogant and pretentious.

Yet, by his own account – an account that has received no challenge – it was this philosopher who, in March 2011, persuaded the then French president Nicolas Sarkozy to recognise the leaders of the emerging Libyan opposition. And it was Sarkozy, straight on the phone to David Cameron, who rallied the international community to support military intervention in Libya.

It is this remarkable story that is unblushingly told in a documentary both directed by, and starring, the 63-year-old philosopher.

Accorded a special screening at the Cannes festival, it features extensive footage of events in Libya last year, as well as interviews with Sarkozy, Cameron and Hillary Clinton. Its rights have already been snapped up by the indie-movie mogul Harvey Weinstein.

When we met at his secluded hotel, the chosen retreat of visiting film stars, at a safe distance from what he called the "soupe" of Cannes, Lévy said the film's purpose was "to show what an individual can do".

He said: "People so often despair that there is nothing they can do when faced with a terrible situation. But something can always be done."

It is not the philosopher's first film. A 1994 documentary, Bosna! was a cri-de-coeur about the appalling situation in Sarajevo; it also premiered at Cannes. It was taken a great deal more seriously than his next, Le Jour et la Nuit, a feature starring Alain Delon, Lauren Bacall and Lévy's wife, the actor Arielle Dombasle. That film's premiere at the Berlin film festival in 1997 descended into farce when its hero's supposedly poignant death in a ballooning accident was greeted with cheers and laughter.

The new film is quite a different proposition: it has urgent political purpose, Lévy said. As we spoke he fielded calls finalising arrangements for members of the Syrian opposition to attend the premiere; the film would be dedicated to them. "I want what happened in Libya to be perceived as the proof that foreign intervention is possible in Syria. Homs today is Benghazi yesterday," he said.

The film is called The Oath of Tobruk, a reference to the oath of Kufra, made when the Free French scored their first victory in Libya and swore not to lay down their arms until France was liberated from the Nazis.

Those with a cynical turn of mind might be tempted to rename it How I Ran the Libyan Revolution. As the documentary unfolds, we see a besuited Lévy wading through the desert sands to the rebel frontlines; or picking his way through the tank-crushed suburbs of Benghazi, this time with a cashmere scarf added to his ensemble.

Here is the former student of Jacques Derrida, his shirt now dangerously unbuttoned, poring over maps with the rebel generals; here he is addressing a tricolor-waving rally of Libyan youth ("Ce pays – c'est la France!"); here he is accompanying National Transitional Council leaders to a meeting with Clinton, and briefing them on Sarkozy's psychology.

In a sequence that teeters dangerously on the brink of self parody we watch him, in full James Bond mode, flying to Turkey on a cloak-and-dagger mission to source night-vision goggles for his friends in the rebel militias.

The tailoring has a serious purpose, he said. "I would not be one of those who when they go to a miserable place has a miserable-place uniform, with a special jacket and so on. It would be inelegant, it would be unfair, it would be what we call moche [tasteless]. It's a question of decency and respect.

"I tried in a very humble and methodical way to do the best I could. In this situation there were a lot of things done, 99% of them by the Libyan people, by Nato forces, by diplomats. There was a little part of all this not done by them, but done by a small group of guys, including me."

The film begins with Lévy crossing the border from Egypt to Libya in March 2011, and attending a meeting of the young National Transitional Council, led by the former minister of justice Mustafa Abdul Jalil.

Fortuitously, he was accompanied by a photographer, Marc Roussel, who switched his camera to video mode. The footage of the meeting shows the philosopher, calling, with the full force of his considerable personality, for five minutes to speak. Then Lévy tells the Libyans that what they need is three things: a no-fly zone, the main airports bombed and Gaddafi's compound targeted. And, he says, he can phone Sarkozy and demand them.

The next scene shows Lévy on his satellite phone to the Elysée palace. The president duly agreed to meet, and formally recognise, the NTC.

The intellectual and the politician have known each other since the 1980s – a relationship that Lévy characterised as "old friendship, and strong political opposition".

Concerning his boldness, some would say presumption, in making his initial offer to the rebels, Lévy simply shrugged. He had no right to do it, he admitted. But he felt he had had to.

"I saw on my way from the border to Benghazi so many scenes of horror, heard so many accounts of abominations, that I really thought that the international community needed to act and quickly. So I dared. It was a dare."

Alain Juppé, then foreign minister, was at first kept in the dark about the conversations, hearing of Sarkozy's embracing of the NTC when it was a done deal. Lévy shrugged. "Juppé was not very pleased, but in such a situation one has to deal as little as possible with sentiment," he said.

For all his confidence, Lévy said that he "had, and still had, doubts about what can come after". He said: "Democracy means good and bad. Progressives, liberals and Muslim brothers. I am not naive enough to ignore that."

But, he added: "I had no doubts on two points. One, there would have been a bloodbath if we had not acted, and two, we could intervene. As Cameron said, it was doable."

Cameron, whom he met in Benghazi and Tripoli on a "triumphal trip", impressed him with his "charisma, energy and real good faith". Lévy said that for Cameron, Sarkozy and Clinton, Bosnia was the watchword, the password". "The three of them said to me the same word: Bosnia, Srebenica, never more."

For himself Lévy has never had ambition for political office, preferring to work through his powerful contacts and considerable inherited wealth. "I do what I want. I am a free man. This is what distinguishes me from others, I am completely free … I like the idea of mandating myself and of being accountable to myself." As if to prove it, his parting shot, as I fumble with my purse to pay for tea, is mischievous. "I know the ontology of the Anglo-Saxon woman refuses it, but please, allow me to make you my guest."

Exclusive: Abdurrahim el-Keib says Abdullah al-Senussi, who has fled Libya, was 'directly or indirectly involved' in 1984 murder

Libya's interim prime minister says on Friday his country's former intelligence chief was "directly or indirectly involved" in the murder of PC Yvonne Fletcher and knew the identity of her killer.

In an interview with the Guardian, Abdurrahim el-Keib said that Abdullah al-Senussi – who fled Libya last year and escaped to Mauritania – was the key to solving Fletcher's murder nearly 30 years ago. "He's the black box," Keib said.

"I guarantee he was almost directly or indirectly involved in most if not all of the crimes [of the former regime]. That doesn't mean others weren't involved. But he definitely knows who they were."

Senussi is wanted by the international criminal court for crimes against humanity in Libya. In addition, France wants to try him in connection with the 1989 bombing of an airline over Niger in which 170 people died. Britain is also interested in talking to him about the Lockerbie bombing, in which Senussi is suspected of involvement.

Keib said he was convinced Senussi could name the person who shot Fletcher outside the Libyan embassy in London in 1984. He laid a wreath on Friday at the spot in St James's Square, bowing his head. "This is a crime we have all been affected by," he said. "Yvonne Fletcher was doing her duty as a policewoman, trying to protect both sides."

Libya's leader met David Cameron on Thursday. He told him several of his friends had been demonstrating that day in 1984 and pledged to work closely with Britain to achieve justice. A team of detectives from the Metropolitan police will fly to Libya to continue its inquiry into Fletcher's murder. Asked whether her killer was most probably still alive and in Libya, Keib said: "I leave this to the investigation."

He urged Downing Street to help Libya extricate Senussi from Mauritania, where he fled last year. Senussi is Muammar Gaddafi's brother-in-law. He is accused of numerous crimes including a massacre in Tripoli's notorious Abu Salim prison, which left around 1,200 inmates dead.

He appeared this week at a secret court hearing in Mauritania, charged with entering the country illegally, and is being held in a villa in the capital, Nouakchott. Keib promised Senussi his day in court": "This person needs to be tried in Libya soon so we can close the books on many of the crimes committed by the past regime."

The Libyan prime minister shrugged off reports that Gaddafi's son Saif al-Islam had been mistreated in custody, and said he would be tried in open court according to international standards. Saif's trial would take place in Libya, he said: "I met with him. I made sure he was well-treated." Asked whether Saif was likely to be executed, if found guilty, he said: "Our intention is not to kill people, you know. Our intention is to bring this issue to closure and move forward."

Keib said he was optimistic about Libya's future. He said elections to create a new national assembly due on 19 June might be postponed by a week or two but would definitely take place over the summer. "The Libyan people did it [the overthrow of Gaddafi] against all odds. We will surprise the world again by going through the election peacefully," he predicted.

He conceded that former regime elements, operating from both inside and outside Libya, were actively trying, as he put it, to destabilise the situation. "They are plotting against the Libyan people. They want to take us back to the Dark Ages," he said. Asked why Gaddafi loyalists would want to cause trouble, since their leader was dead, he replied: "They are in a state of denial."

Keib refused to be drawn on what role he might play in any future government. "I would serve Libya even as a garbage collector, if that helps Libya," he said. Libya's interim ruling body, the National Transitional Council will hand over to the new national assembly, whose chief task will be to draw up a constitution.

Since the fall of Tripoli last summer, the NTC has struggled to assert its authority. Human rights abuses have continued, with bloody clashes between rival militias. There is also a growing divide between Libya's regions, with some towns such as Misrata becoming virtual city-states. There are also serious divisions between different ministries in Tripoli.

Keib, however, rejected the claim that Libya was hurtling towards disaster and becoming inexorably Balkanised. He said the new constitution might result in a federal Libya; another option was a system of provinces and municipalities. Secessionism wasn't just a Libyan problem, he said, adding: "There are a group of people in Texas who want to separate."

In addition, Keib said it was wrong to suggest that Gaddafi's overthrow last year was exclusively the result of western-engineered regime change – as Moscow claims. "It's unfair to say that Nato liberated Libya. It takes away from the energy, lives, determination and tremendous effort that the Libyan people have done."

Speaking earlier at Chatham House, Keib – a professor of electrical engineering who became interim prime minister last October – described Britain as a beautiful country. He said he first visited London as a child in 1965, when he went to a summer school to learn English and lived in Adelaide Road, Swiss Cottage.

Keib said he was keen that young men and women from Libya studied at British universities including Oxford, Cambridge and Manchester. Asked about the London School of Economics, which unwisely accepted £1.5m from Saif al-Islam, he joked: "LSE even better."

Abdurrahim el-Keib, Libya's interim prime minister, visits the spot where a police officer, Yvonne Fletcher, was shot outside his country's London embassy in 1984

Muammar Gaddafi's former intelligence chief, who is being held in Mauritania, is also wanted by Libya and France

It was almost midnight on a moonlit Friday evening when a group of sleepy passengers disembarked from a plane in the Mauritanian capital of Nouakchott. Among them, walking with a slight stoop and dressed in the traditional flowing robes of the nomadic Tuareg people, was a sturdily built man who looked older than his 62 years, accompanied by a younger, nervous-looking man.

Within minutes, both had been whisked away by officials into a small airport building for questioning.

The following day, 17 March, the world woke up to the news that the sprawling desert country was now hosting one of the world's most wanted men, Abdullah al-Senussi.

Senussi, a linchpin of Muammar Gaddafi's regime, had been arrested trying to enter Mauritania on a forged passport from Mali, disguised as a Tuareg. The identity and whereabouts of his young escort remain a mystery, though officials hint he was a family member.

Held in a luxury villa for 45 days under anti-terrorist laws, Gaddafi's spy chief and brother-in-law was charged this week with entering the country on falsified documents, a crime that carries a maximum jail term of three years. The watered-down charges for a man wanted by Libya and the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity, and in France for a mass murder that killed 170, came as little surprise.

"Normally, if you hold someone for 45 days, you have a serious crime to charge them with," a senior army official told the Guardian. "Senussi has protectors in high places here."

That shows in his preferential treatment at the Dar Naim prison, where he is now awaiting a trial date. Two cells have been equipped with "every convenience – a television and comfortable bed" for the high-profile detainee in a prison activists say "was designed to inflict maximum suffering and humiliation on its prisoners".

Military sources also dismissed statements that 62-year-old was suffering any serious ailments, as president Mohamed Ould Abdel Azziz has stated, saying he had been hospitalised once for a few days for non-life-threatening sickness.

That such a high-profile fugitive lived unhindered in Mali and Morocco for months is evidence that few authorities wanted a Gaddafi insider on their hands. "It was known he was living in Morocco, and of course it wasn't just a routine check [that snared him] in Mauritania," a Mauritanian intelligence source said. To some, it is evidence that Mauritania has waded into the fraught affair at the behest of powerful allies.

As for what happens next to Gaddafi's most brutal and loyal confidant – the intelligence officer was one of the last to flee the crumbling regime, reportedly after attempts to negotiate peace deals with rebels collapsed – rumours continue to swirl.

That Senussi was caught disguised as a Tuareg is fitting: the marginalised desert-dwellers had become ready allies of Gaddafi after he had lavished gifts on them for years. Thousands of Tuareg flocked from their traditional homelands in Niger, Chad and Mali to prop up the failing regime.

In the northern territories of Mali and Niger, signs of Libyan wealth abound. "Gaddafi put up street lamps, built roads, luxury hotels and even the airport here," said Ali Idrissa, a Tuareg in the Agadez region that borders Libya.

Heavily armed Tuareg units had guided and protected both Gaddafi's son, Saif al-Islam, and Senussi as their convoys fled through the Sahara desert that links Libya's southern border with Niger and wound westward into Mali, sources in Niger told the Guardian.

In Mali, Tuaregs welcomed the fugitive. "Every person who is in the leadership of the [main rebel movements] in Mali today was close to Gaddafi," said Balla Mahaman, a senior commander with the Mouvemement National pour la Liberation de Azawad (MNLA), which has since upended the country's southern government.

But Senussi chose to leave after four months in the country. "Post-Gaddafi, Mali was no longer the Mali he knew," Mahaman said.

French intelligence units spearheaded a plan to lure Senussi to Mauritania through the Me'edani tribe, one of four Mauritanian tribes that pledged allegiance to the Gaddafi regime, according to several sources in Nouakchott.

Libya has long enjoyed close links with Mauritania. Gaddafi was the first president to visit the country after President Mohamed Ould Abdel Azziz seized power in a 2008 coup, while various Mauritanian banks are seen by some opposition politicians as Libyan slush funds.

Backstage, furious diplomatic lobbying continues. With Mauritania seen by the United States in particular as a bulwark in the fight against al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb, Mauritania has substantial leverage, insiders say.

For now, many see Libya as the likely frontrunner in the three-way tussle. "To understand what's happened so far and what will come next, you have to look at everything in the context of Mauritania's close relationship with Libya," a western diplomat said.

But while Mauritania has been hinting that the spy chief will be transferred home, no deals have been struck yet, according to a presidential aide present at meetings between the government and Libyan representatives.

"It's a question of where will he go, not if," the aide added.

The prospect of a trial in France might create unease in some quarters. "If he stands trial [in France] for events that happened years ago, he's going to open his mouth. What's to say Senussi doesn't know the money trail and arms trail linking Gaddafi with every government in the west?" an African diplomat said.

Government's anti-militia SSC held responsible after leading human rights figure is seized and injured

Members of an elite unit set up by the Libyan government to rein in the country's rival militia forces have been accused of kidnapping and severely beating one of the country's foremost surgeons.

The abduction appears further evidence that 10 months after taking over, Libya's new interim government has failed to curb human rights abuses, and is seemingly incapable of controlling either the militias or its own security force. It comes as the country faces its first national elections later this month – a key test of whether Libya is heading towards democracy or violent secessionism.

Salem Forjani, a heart surgeon working for the health ministry, was seized on 17 May when he went to Tripoli medical centre – the city's largest hospital – on orders of the health minister to remove the director, who was accused of links with the Gaddafi regime.

Instead, he was confronted by members of the government's supreme security committee (SSC) waiting in the director's office, who dragged Forjani through the hospital, beating him so badly he lost consciousness in front of horrified staff.

A fellow medic photographed Forjani being carried, his shirt off, spreadeagled, down the hospital's ambulance ramp while an SSC soldier threatened to shoot unarmed hospital security staff giving chase.

The SSC troops bundled the doctor into a car and incarcerated him in a base at Naklia, a suburb of Tripoli, where he was beaten and kicked so hard in the groin that he was left with a ruptured testicle.

Forjani escaped with his life. But for five days neither his family nor health minister Fatima Hamroush could find him, or even get confirmation he was still alive.

Finally, after he had been moved to a second facility, at Tripoli's Mitiga airport, the SSC contacted the health ministry and released him, having failed to charge him with any offence or even explain the reason for his capture.

Now the surgeon is in hiding in Tripoli, having been warned of reprisals if he speaks out. "I don't know how this could happen, this is a new Libya," he told the Guardian. "I kept asking them, who are you, why are you doing this?"

What has shocked many Libyans, with the photograph now going viral among Facebook users, is that Forjani is a leading light among human rights groups. He sits as an expert on the government's missing persons commission and chaired an investigation into a massacre of prisoners by the Gaddafi administration, a report distributed to the United Nations and the international criminal court.

His kidnap and torture, and the silence with which it has been met by the government, has left many Libyans fearing for the future. "This is kidnapping," said his brother, Salah, an official with a Libyan human rights group. "It [the SSC] is more powerful than the police and that is the intention."

It was not supposed to be this way. The SSC was set up, under the auspices of the interior ministry, as a means for the state to gain control of security from Libya's patchwork of militias.

Most of the country remains under the control of more than 500 rebel militias who emerged victorious from last year's Arab spring uprising, creating a complicated series of interlocking fiefdoms.Human rights groups have accused a minority of these groups of abuses against prisoners.

Many Libyans fear the SSC, which recruits from both former rebels and disbanded Gaddafi-era internal security units, has become a law unto itself.

Last month, the United Nations special representative, Ian Martin, raised concerns at the UN security council in New York. "The interim mechanism called the supreme security committee, with some 60,000 to 70,000 fighters registered, had, to some extent, provided a unified command," his report states. "It was essential, however, that the committee not become a parallel security."

Yet this is precisely what critics claim the SSC has become. When her official was kidnapped, health minister Hamroush wrote to interim prime minister Abdurrahim el-Keib and president Mustafa Abdul Jalil, begging for help. "We have had no answer," said health ministry official Hussam Bubash.

Keib visited Britain last month and held talks with David Cameron. He insisted that his National Transitional Council (NTC) was committed to upholding human rights. Keib also defended controversial new laws making it a crime to glorify the former regime, or to "insult the aims of the February 17 revolution". He described the decree as "transitional" and insisted that freedom of speech will be protected by Libya's new, as yet unwritten, constitution.

The behaviour of the SSC is embarrassing for Britain and France, which took the lead in last year's Nato bombing campaign that delivered victory to Libya's rebels over the forces of the late Muammar Gaddafi.

Britain has dispatched a senior police officer to advise Libya's new interior ministry, although she does not have any direct involvement with the SCC.

The Foreign Office says the UK has consistently raised with Tripoli the importance of respecting human rights and investigating allegations of abuses, including those by rebel forces. It was important the Libyan government reintegrated militias into society, and restored security to the streets, the FO said. On the eve of crucial elections, the country remains fractious. Tribal fighting in southern Libya left 150 dead in March; last month, a militia unit demanding back pay stormed the prime minister's office, while skirmishes around Tripoli have frequently closed the border with Tunisia.

Attempts by the interior ministry to deploy SSC units around the country have led to disquiet among the militias of Misrata and Zintan, the most powerful armed forces in the country, their city councils arguing that police forces should be under regional control.

Dr Khalid Urayath – the director of Tripoli medical centre, whom Forjani was sent to relieve – remains unrepentant. He is refusing to step down, saying he is supported by hospital staff and this makes irrelevant the wishes of the health minister.Forjani's kidnap came during the fourth attempt this year by health ministry officials to order Urayath to step down. When he refused, Forjana, acting on instructions from the health minister, called the general prosecutor's office to ask for help from law enforcement officers.

"He was calling on armed forces," said Urayath. "You know why they [the SCC] used force on him? Dr Salem (Forjana) was trying to escape down the stairs – he was trying to escape. They took him in care and took him to the site of the SSC, they put him there, they interrogated him."

Urayath is himself a highly qualified heart surgeon and a fellow of the UK's Royal College of Surgeons. Last month he secured an offer of computer equipment from the British Libyan business council, a powerful business lobbying group chaired by Lord Trefgame, the members of which group include BP, Barclays and GlaxoSmithKline.

He denies allegations from the health ministry that he misspent money on 150 overseas trips for staff, and says his links to the Gaddafi administration were through his decision to mentor the late dictator's adopted daughter, Hanna, a medical student. "The best cardiovascular surgeon in the country is me, very humble to say it," he said. "You cannot say no to the Colonel [Gaddafi]."

Diplomats are quietly lobbying Libya's government to issue a guarantee of safety for Forjani. But following Urayath's refusal to step down, the health ministry's plans to reform a health service left in chaos by the Gaddafi dictatorship are in tatters. 

A health ministry official said that two weeks after the health minister urged the government to arrest the kidnappers, no action has been taken and the prime minister has failed to launch an investigation.

"What can we do? We cannot remove him, we have no armed force," said Bubash. "I am one of the people who was threatened. The supreme security council said: 'You can see what will happen to you.' "

The interior ministry, contacted by the Guardian, did not return calls and a spokesman for the ruling National Transitional Council cancelled an interview.

Al-Awfea Brigade fighters force international flights to be diverted to military airport as they demand release of kidnapped leader

Libyan militia fighters have surrounded Tripoli international airport, forcing flights to be diverted to the capital's military airport.

A security official said the militia – al-Awfea Brigade, from Tarhouna town, 50 miles south-east of Tripoli – was demanding the release of one of its leaders, who it said had disappeared on Sunday.

"The situation in the airport is very tense and tanks are surrounding the buildings," the official said. "No one is allowed into the building."

A customs official said flights had been cancelled and incoming planes were being diverted to Mitiga airport.

Mohammed al-Harizy, a spokesman for the ruling National Transitional Council, said the head of al-Awfea, Colonel Abu Oegeila al-Hebeishi, had been kidnapped by unknown armed rebels while travelling between Tarhouna and Tripoli late on Sunday.

International flights were diverted after militia protesting against reported kidnapping of their leader stormed airport

Armed militias stormed Tripoli international airport on Monday in a protest against the reported kidnapping of their leader. The militias, from Tarhuna, 40 miles south of Tripoli, captured the airport, firing shots as their vehicles careered across the runway in front of planes waiting to take off, forcing international flights to be diverted to the capital's military airport.

The attack on the airport, which was apparently unguarded, has raised fresh questions about the government's grip on security, coming a month after another militia occupied the office of the prime minister, Abdurrahim el-Keib, and little more than two weeks before planned national elections.

The government said on Monday night it had retaken control of the airport. In an interview with al-Jazeera, the head of the country's National Transitional Council, Mustafa Abdul-Jalil, said the airport was attacked and held for several hours. He vowed it would not fall out of government control again.

"The attack on the airport is dangerous, but we dealt with it as a government, military and revolutionaries with intelligence," he said.

One witness, Adem Saleh, a Libyan oil worker, was on a bus being taken across the airport apron to board a flight to Benghazi when the militia struck.

"There was a government official in the bus behind me, he was talking on his mobile phone with someone about a militia who were angry. And he was saying: 'They can't come into the airport now, the negotiations are still going on,'" he told the Guardian. "I didn't know what he was talking about. Then out of the window I saw these Jeeps with guys with guns race across the runway."

He watched as the militia's vehicles swarmed around planes parked on the apron, and saw one unit dismount and confront the Libyan ground crew of an Alitalia plane. "They walked up to these guys, I could see they were shouting. Then they opened fire. I don't know if they shot the ground crew or they were firing near them, but I saw two guys, ground crew, later who were wounded."

Jalil said the militia were angry over the arrest of their commander, Abu Oegeila al-Hebeishi, on Sunday. The NTC said that by late afternoon the militia had agreed to surrender the airport after a promise from Jalil that the missing commander would be found.

The government's inability to secure key installations has left many Libyans rattled. "They cannot open the airport now, no way," said Saleh. "Its not safe."

Tripoli airport is no stranger to conflict: in December it was closed after machine-gun fire arced over the runway as the army tried to capture the airport from a militia from Zintan that had occupied it. The Zintan militia surrendered control of the airport in April, but a strike last month forced it to close for a day.

The attack will cause anxiety among international airlines which must now decide whether the government can guarantee security for what promises to be a turbulent time leading up to the elections.

British Airways resumed flights to Tripoli in May after suspending them when the Libyan revolution began in February last year.

Some airlines continue importing their own aviation fuel, or ensure jets land with enough fuel for the return journey, amid concerns that supplies in Libya may be contaminated.

The government's elite force, the Supreme Security Committee, whose forces remained deployed with machine-gun mounted jeeps near the airport on Monday night are in the spotlight after claims from the health ministry that they kidnapped and tortured a prominent heart surgeon last month.

The latest skirmish comes with the NTC facing fighting and upheavals across the country, hampering efforts to hold national elections on 19 June.

The southern towns of Sabbha and Kufra remain tense after inter-tribal battles, and engagements west of Tripoli last month saw the border crossing with Tunisia closed.

Meanwhile, the cities of Zintan and Misrata, home to the most powerful militia armies, which bore the brunt of last year's fighting, have become virtual fortresses, electing their own city councils and resisting attempts by NTC forces to impose their authority.

Many Libyans are waiting for the electoral campaigns before they decide how to vote, but which party holds the upper hand?

Libya's first national elections in more than four decades, scheduled for 19 June, may be delayed for a few weeks. Although the Libyan electoral commission is yet to finalise the list of candidates and prepare the ballot papers, the delay is expected to be short.

Holding elections in a country like Libya is no easy task and the electoral commission has done a good job so far. It has worked hard to such an extent that earlier talk of delaying the elections for three to four months seems unreal now.

The Libyan people have clearly demonstrated their desire to move forward by registering in large numbers to vote in the coming elections. According to the electoral commission, roughly 80% of the eligible voters have registered.

After living in a dictatorship for 42 years, democracy is something new for the Libyan people but they are keenly waiting for the day when they will be able to elect their own representatives and the thought of it is very empowering for them.

Libyans will be electing 200 members of an assembly to lead them formally into the next phase of the revolution, the rebuilding. The assembly's main task will be to draft a new constitution.

Not surprisingly, Libya has seen a surge of political activity, which is also very confusing. The number of registered political entities now exceeds 370 and candidates say all kind of things to entice the voters: liberal parties use religious punchlines while the religious parties try to present themselves as open and inclusive.

Despite the efforts of the political parties to hold conference and media events, many Libyans are waiting for the electoral campaigns before they decide how to vote – so it is difficult at present to predict the outcome.

Considering the pattern of the recent political events, the four parties likely to perform well are the National Front, the Justice and Construction party, the Nation party and the National Forces Alliance.

Two of these are religion-based parties. The Justice and Construction party belongs to the Muslim Brotherhood and the Nation party has the support of Ali al-Sallabi, a famous Libyan religious scholar. Both parties have similar policies and have said in the past that they want to see Libya as a free, transparent and democratic country based on the principles of Islam.

With a number of other religious parties competing, it seems likely that the religious vote will be split, making alliances in the new assembly inevitable. Statements from various political leaders, especially Abdul Hakim Belhadj, one of the most prominent leaders of the Nation party, suggest that negotiations about alliances are already under way.

The lack of information and clear strategy from the liberal parties is likely to work in favour of the religious parties, especially more organised ones such as the Muslim Brotherhood.

On the other hand parties and alliances with progressive and liberal ideas say they are hopeful of getting a majority in the assembly. Yousef Magariaf's National Front and Mahmoud Jibril's National Forces Alliance are seen as strong competition to the religious parties. Both parties are likely to attract voters by appealing to a modern and progressive vision.

However, a history of working with the former regime for several years will work against Jibril as many still hold that against him. The National Front, which is relying heavily on its past struggle against Muammar Gaddafi, is gaining momentum and is likely to capitalise on its 30 years of organisation.

Many political pundits have predicted a victory for the liberal parties in the upcoming elections but considering the complexities of Libyan society and the lack of democratic culture, a congress with religious parties in the majority seems closer to reality.

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